SeatradeMaritime: Namibian oil finds likely to drive long-haul tanker demand

Recent oil discoveries off the coast of Namibia in the southern Atlantic Ocean are likely to underpin a new tanker trade between the southern Africa nation and Asia.

Promising discoveries of crude oil in Namibia’s Orange Basin made recently by TotalEnergies and Portuguese multinational energy company Galp Energia are likely to generate a new tanker trade between the African nation and customers in Asia, according to analysis by New York broker, Poten & Partners.

Paris-based TotalEnergies is planning to make a final investment decision on its Venus oilfield early in 2026 and Galp is looking for a partner to develop what some analysts believe could be a giant new oil and gas field, Mopane.

Initially estimated to hold more than 10bn barrels of oil and gas equivalent, experts have suggested that more finds recently could mean the field is significantly larger than first thought. Other discoveries are possible.

Both Venus and Mopane are likely to be developed using FPSOs. Poten points out that neither company has provided detailed plans so far, but sources suggest that the Galp field could produce about 240,000b/d of crude oil using two FPSOs with the Venus field yielding about 150,000b/d with one unit.  

Poten notes that the Namibian hydrocarbon systems are essentially mirror images of the reserves found off South America. Millions of years ago the two continents were joined as part of the vast supercontinent, Gondwana. The salt layer, Poten said, acts as an effective seal, preserving large oil and gas deposits beneath it in both regions.

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The Namibian Government is keen to see first oil by 2029. It the first two fields prove successful, other projects could keep coming, potentially driving production to more than 700,000b/d 10 years or so from now.

Although Nigeria has commissioned its huge Dangote refinery and is now exporting oil products, Poten believes that Namibia is more likely to export its oil as crude. This would present tanker owners with another long-haul trade opportunity, most likely to Asia, generating new demand for Suezmax tankers and VLCCs.