Seatrade-Maritime: Time for owners to evacuate crew stranded by Hormuz stalemate

Published by Seatrade-Maritime

The stalemate around the Strait of Hormuz is nearing the three-month mark with around 1,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers remaining stranded in the Arabian Gulf.

With any normalising of transits through the Strait looks increasingly distant and unlikely in the near term the situation for stranded crew is reaching breaking point.

On one side is Iran trying to formalise its control through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) which includes territorial waters belonging to UAE and Oman, while on the other UAE issued a statement at the IMO co-signed by Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, categorically rejecting Iran’s alternative route for transiting the Strait.

An international safe corridor?

Proposals for a safe corridor an international level rely on a peace accord being struck, but the two sides appear to remain far apart on key points in negotiations which continue to drag on with little obvious sign of agreement. And the US attempt at a safe corridor through Project Freedom failed miserably and remains suspended.

How long will these 20,000 innocent seafarers who did not sign up to be on ships in conflict zone have to endure being stranded thousands of miles from home from their families who wait helplessly? 

At the same time the very ships they are sitting on remain possible targets even if they are not trying to exit the Strait, especially if the uneasy ceasefire between the US and Iran fails and bombing starts again in earnest.

This leaves essentially two options – take the risk of exiting the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz or evacuate seafarers on ships currently stranded and put those vessels into a more permanent form of lay-up.

On the first option the publication this week of Industry Guidance on the Safe Management of Vessel Transit through the Strait of Hormuz  produced and supported by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), IMCA, Intercargo, Bimco, Intertanko, and OCIMF, hardly made for comforting reading for those planning a transit. And as attempts at transits have shown while some may end safely, others have ended in missile strikes with severely injured crew or vessels being seized by Iran.

In the second option by moving to warm or cold lay-up the majority or all of the crew onboard vessels stranded in the Gulf could be brought ashore and repatriated. 

Will owners decide to lay-up ships?

However, the decision to lay-up ships though not only be one that is made in terms of crew welfare but also a business one, So, how likely are shipowners like to make such a decision?

Signal Ocean analyst Maria Bertzelelou believes that lay-up is becoming more likely. “Unfortunately, the scenario of vessels moving into cold lay-up is becoming increasingly realistic. At this stage, the immediate priority for the industry is crew welfare and repatriation.”

Bertzelelou believes that the month of June will be crucial for determining the next phase. If no international safe corridor is agreed upon then it is likely there would be an initial release of crews from effected ships which would be followed up by the cold lay-up of selected vessels. “This would likely support elevated oil prices and sustain artificially firm AG freight rates in the short term,” she said.

However, Maritime Strategies International (MSI) Managing Director Adam Kent believes the situation is not yet at the stage where owners would look to repatriate crew and lay-up vessels.

“I don’t think we will see owners putting vessels into warm lay-up just yet. The situation around the closure seems quite fluid, with changing announcements almost daily, and I’m sure owners are still keen to capitalise on the opportunity and pent-up demand when the Strait opens. Given it will take time to bring vessels out of lay-up and back into operation, they won’t want to risk the time delay just yet,” Kent said.

This would though change if the Strait was to remain closed for a prolonged, guaranteed period.

Meanwhile the tense and nervous waiting game for stranded seafarers and their families continues for either for a safe corridor to materialise or the needs of crew welfare and shipping business economics to coincide and repatriation and lay-up take place.