Maritime Executive: U.S. Container Imports Expected to Fall in First Half of 2026

While there appear to be signs of a normalization in the U.S. container import flows and less impact from frontloading, the expectations are that volumes will continue to fall at least through the first four months of 2026. Uncertainty about the U.S.’s tariffs, policy issues, and geopolitical developments all continue to weigh on the outlook for trade.

Both the National Retail Federation and Descartes Global are pointing to a weak start to 2026 import volumes. Descartes calculates that January container volumes were at a total of 2.3 million TEU, which was up more than 90,000 TEU versus December, but down nearly seven percent versus a year ago. Last year, importers were believed to be frontloading ahead of the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

The retail trade association is forecasting January’s retail import figure at 2.11 million TEU, which it says is down more than five percent from a year ago. It suggests that the month-over-month increase was importers advancing orders to get ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which begins next week, and when factories across Asia will be closed.

Analysts have forecast that carriers would take between 10 and 14 percent of capacity out of the market around the Lunar New Year. The major lines typically begin blanking sailings from their schedules around the holiday and afterward and are further encouraged this year, with freight rates already weak.

Imports from China specifically were down nearly 23 percent in January 2026, according to Descartes. It notes that China accounted for a third of U.S. trade but believes the tariff policies and uncertainties are showing in the current levels of imports.

“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning, and consumer affordability.”

The NRF reiterated its earlier projections that imports will show significant year-over-year declines during the first half of 2026. It projects container volumes under two million TEU per month until April. For the first half, it projects a total of 12.27 million TEU, which would be down two percent from 2025.

The first improvements, however, could begin in May 2025, a year after Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” when the tariff levels were first rolled out. Retailers and other shippers rushed to get their goods into the U.S. ahead of the policies or during some of the pause windows created as tariff negotiations were proceeding.

Descartes, however, also highlights that with the lack of a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court on the tariffs, “policy uncertainty for importers remains elevated, with no near-term change to tariff conditions.” The Trump administration has also threatened new moves if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down its current tariff policies.