Seatrade-Maritime: Drones and USVs replace mines as Black Sea’s floating hazard

Published by Seatrade-Maritime

Maritime intelligence company Ambrey said it expects the conditions in the Black Sea that led the Joint War Committee to expand the region’s Listed Area will continue for the remainder of 2026, with no reduction to the listing in the near future.

On 16 September, JWC expanded the Black Sea Listed Area to cover the whole of the Black Sea, excluding the territorial waters of Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, and Türkiye.

In an analysis of the JWC’s decision, Ambrey senior analyst Tomas Alexa, said the listing expansion follows the threat to shipping rather than anticipating it. “In the 12 months to 21 September 2026, 45 merchant vessels were struck outside the previously listed area, against none in the preceding 12 months; 33 of those strikes came in the last three months alone,” said Alexa.

On the same day that Ambrey released its analysis, 23 September, Maritime security firm Vanguard tech reported an overnight Russian attack on an Antigua and Barbuda-flagged cargo vessel that killed the ship’s Ukrainian master and caused a fire onboard. The vessel was on approach to Ukraine’s Port of Odesa; Russia’s Ministry of Defence made an unverified claim that it was carrying military cargo, an accusation frequently used by both Russia and Ukraine to justify attacks on merchant vessels.

“With strikes on ports up from 21 to 139 quarter-on-quarter and neither belligerent accepting a maritime truce, Ambrey assesses it is HIGHLY LIKELY that the open Black Sea will remain a contested operating environment for the foreseeable future,” said Alexa.

Ambrey said attacks in the Black Sea had moved south and further offshore. Up until September 2025, only five vessels were recorded struck outside of the previous Listed Area boundary, four of those by drifting sea mines. By the third quarter of 2026, attacks beyond the old boundary had become routine, with 29 in the quarter to date.

Changes in vessel drifting locations and approaches to Russian due to the increased strikes also led to more attacks to fall outside of the old boundary as there were fewer targets to be found within the legacy Listed Area, said Ambrey.

The risk has also spread beyond tankers, the initial targets of Ukraine’s intense campaign of ship attacks beginning in July 2026, to include bulk carriers, general cargo ships, container ships, an ro-ro vessels, said Ambrey.

“Ambrey assesses that targeting is driven by sanction status, ownership, trading history, and sanctions exposure, not solely by the declared destination, flag or ownership, which widens the population of vessels that could be affected.”

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) is another heightened risk in the Black Sea, as more frequent attacks means more failed munitions and interceptions. For the first four years of the Russia-Ukraine war, UXOs were discovered at a rate of 14-20 per year. In the fifth year, 53 have been discovered to date.

Ambrey said UAVs and USVs have become the dominant floating hazard in the Black Sea, accounting, as sea mines accounted for just two of the 53 UXOs discovered this year, compared to 15 of the 17 in the first year of the war.

While the expansion of the Listed Area excludes the territorial waters of Black Sea adjoining nations except Russia and Ukraine, that exclusion is not a sign of safety.

“The exclusion of adjacent territorial waters should not be read as an absence of risk. The Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish coasts continue to record the highest density of UXO finds, and at least one tanker was struck approximately 11.6NM north of the Bosphorus,” said Ambrey.