Seatrade-Maritime: Suez return could leave container capacity 10% above demand, says Bimco

Published by Seatrade-Maritime

Bimco has released an analysis of the container shipping sector which suggests that the industry is on course to see a major supply and demand imbalance, unless there is a continuation of the current disruptions.

Typhoons have caused congestion in Asia that has transferred to Europe and the US. Meanwhile, the Panama Canal is limiting transits due to low water caused by El Niño, while conflict in the Middle East is increasing inflation and uncertainty across the globe.

“Disruptions and strong growth in head-haul trades continue to support the container shipping market in 2026, but accelerating fleet growth could weaken the supply/demand balance in 2027,” said Bimco’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen.

In its analysis Bimco looked at two possible scenarios, where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the second situation “assumes normal transit conditions” in the Arabian Gulf during 2027. Capacity growth is expected to grow faster than demand in either scenario.

“In 2026, the balance remains supported by continued Cape of Good Hope rerouting, strong growth in trades not involving the Persian Gulf while some ships remain unavailable within the Persian Gulf,” explained Rasmussen.

Global volumes increased 5.1% in the first seven months of this year, compared to a similar period in 2025, according to Bimco data, even though growth in south and western Asia was stymied by the conflict across the Middle East, which has seen access to the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea stymied.

“Head-haul and regional volumes increased by 6.3% while volumes in back-haul trades did not grow. Ship demand has consequently again grown faster than overall cargo volumes,” said Bimco.

A container ship orderbook that currently stands at 42% of the total 34m teu, will likely see capacity outstrip volume growth as the Middle East conflict continues to hit energy costs and consumer confidence in import markets, while Chinese retail sales have also been affected.

“Unless Strait of Hormuz transit conditions normalise, continued oil supply constraints and higher oil prices could weaken global economic growth and container volume growth in 2027,” said Rasmussen.

Vessel capacity is expected to increase 4.6% this year and 9% in 2027, said Bimco.

Container shipping lines have, however, continued to return tonnage to the Suez Canal route, even as the Houthi threat has apparently increased, and Bimco believes that should the Red Sea route return to its pre-war levels of transit, vessel demand could be as much as 10% below offered capacity.

“While the supply/demand balance has strengthened during 2026, we expect that increased supply growth will drive a weakening of the markets during 2027, especially if a return to Suez Canal routings weakens ship demand,” confirmed Rasmussen.