Splash247: Why shipping isn’t panicking over swollen orderbooks

Traditionally in shipping, alarm bells tend to ring for investors when the orderbook-to-fleet ratio of a sector goes above 30%. For certain segments today, notably LNG, LPG and megamax containerships, that ratio is at record levels, and yet analysts contacted by Splash Extra for December’s lead story are generally sanguine about this tonnage overhang. 

Analysts say fleet age, emissions pressure and a staggered delivery schedule mean the current cycle looks more evolutionary than excessive — except in large containers where the orderbook-to-fleet ratio is now above 70%. The orderbook for vessels capable of carrying 18,000 teu and above is now more than four times larger than it was just 18 months ago.

Splash Extra – now available for free – is shipping’s essential monthly guide on where the markets are headed. As well as annual reviews on the dry bulk, tanker and container markets, the editorial team has selected 2025’s most important shipping news items.

This month’s in-depth feature assesses which sectors are the best to invest in next year, with a useful chart (carried below) from Maritime Strategies International on where each segment is in terms of the current cycle.